| Hurricane
Season 2005 continued
Recently,
the team contended they were correct again in 2004
in predicting an above-average
hurricane season for the Atlantic basin as four intense
hurricanes – Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne-
devastated Florida and the Caribbean Islands in August
and September. However, they said they “fell
short” in predicting the large number of intense
hurricanes that formed and concentrated in and around
Florida during that time. The team also predicts a higher-than-average probability
in 2005 for a major hurricane making landfall on the
United States and Caribbean coastlines.
Next year, there is a 69% chance of at least one major
hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline,
according to the forecast. For the U.S. East Coast,
including the Florida peninsula, the probability of
an intense hurricane making landfall is 49%. For the
Gulf Coast, from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville,
the probability is 39%, according to the forecast.
In 2004, Florida and the Caribbean Islands were pummeled
by four landfalling hurricanes, the forecasters said,
referring to Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Jeanne and
Ivan. The hurricanes marked the first time in more
than a century that four hurricanes hit the same state
in the same hurricane season.
The
four hurricanes combined have caused an estimated
$20.49 billion in insured losses, according
to Insurance
Services Office, Inc.’s Property Claim Services
unit. Of the 2.2 million claims associated with the
four hurricanes, about 1.7 million are in Florida.
About 78% of the claims and 85% of the losses are in
that state.
The team said their forecasts are based on the premise
that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions- such
as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level
pressure-that preceded active or inactive hurricane
seasons in the past provide meaningful information
about similar trends in future seasons.
In
October, a panel of global warming experts said the
four hurricanes that struck the
United States in
August and September may be a sign of things to come,
as global warming continues to generate “more
intense” tropical storm activity. The panel,
which participated in a briefing sponsored by the Center
for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical
School, said that warming sea-surface temperatures
brought about by increasing concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere from human activities would
raise the risk of repeats in future years of intense
hurricanes and subsequent flooding that the United
States experienced in 2004.
However, Gray, who has been forecasting Atlantic basin
hurricanes for 22 years, does not attribute changes
in recent and projected Atlantic hurricane activity
to human-induced global warming.
For
more information on hurricanes, visit http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/
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